People will be forced to make difficult
choices between using private or public transport as economies begins to move out
of the now ubiquitous stay-at-home lockdowns. In an ideal world where public transport
is a realistic option, people would prefer to use public transport as the mode of
choice from a social welfare standpoint.
But, due to social distancing
measures that now appear likely to stay in place for the foreseeable future,
individuals would be incentivised to use private transport modes (e.g., private cars
for commute). It is reasonable to assume that in a post-COVID-19 world shared
ridership will not be an option for the simple reason people should prefer
private to public transport (i.e., for fear of contracting the disease). In
effect, this should shift mobility systems farther away from sustainable low
carbon modes of transport.
However, for the majority of
people around the world the choice between public and private transport simply
does not exist for a number of reasons. The obvious one is the fact that for
many families owning a car is impossible given their level of income (Fig. 1). Or
there is simply no provision for public transport as is the case in many
countries.[1]
Or if it exists, it is unaffordable.
In theory, individuals have a
choice either to walk or use any other form of non-motorised transport – NMT
(e.g., bicycle, particularly where cycling is a realistic option). NMT is regarded as healthier and
environmentally friendlier - even though it is worth mentioning that cost (time
and distance), as well as personal safety, are the primary considerations in
majority of commuting choices.
The advent of the novel corona virus
that causes COVID-19 heralded a new normal in mobility. Whilst personal safety
has always been a concern for the commuting pubic, henceforth it is likely to
be much more significant a factor. This situation is not likely to change until
such a time when there will be a vaccine available, or society would have built
herd immunity to allow pre-COVID-19
mobility patterns to resume.
My hypothesis is that
self-preservation instincts and the rules of the game as defined by public
authorities will be the main determining factors in mobility choices going
forward. This would be tragedy in the sense that the decarbonisation dividend[2]
observed under the stay-at-home lockdown orders imposed in cities and regions
around the world could easily dissipate. That would turn the Paris Agreement ambitions[3]
on their head. With that said, a pertinent question is to ask would be: what should be done to minimise the
likelihood of such reversals happening?
Of course, none of the above is
inevitable. Given that most countries are going to suffer severe recession, or
deep depression through at least 2022, the slowing down of economic activities
globally could mean less emission. If countries are able to clearly define pathways
and mitigation actions to decarbonise transport in their second Nationally
Determined Contributions, they can count on extending the decarbonisation
dividend resulting in significant reduction in global emissions.[4]
A well-thoughtout and
transformative pathways towards greener carbon neutral economy is a smart way to
reimagine economies and innovate ways out of the hole countries find themselves
in thanks to the coronavirus pandemic.
Admittedly, this is rather optimistic
in an increasingly polarised world. However, a valuable lesson from COVID-19 is
that the world should, and indeed must, be better prepared to deal with
emerging crises such as climate change.
[1] An extreme but tragic example is the case of
migrant workers in India who were forced to walk back to their homes (rural
villages) since there was no alternative means of transport due to the COVID-19
lockdown in the cities. Fatigued from walking for 36 kms, 16 people are
reported to have crusted to death (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52586898)
as they slept on rail tracks in the state of Maharashtra due to
exhaustion.
[2] Decarbonisation dividend refers to the
observed reduction in carbon emissions directly as a result of COVID-19 induced
stay-at-home lockdowns orders and closures. This has been a boon for climate
change and sustainable development.
[3] Under the Paris Agreement, countries pledged
to transform their development trajectories through Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) i.e., post-2020 actions by each country to reduce national
emissions and adapt to the impact of climate change. Several initiatives and solutions aimed at
developing sustainable mobility systems to catapult society towards greener and
healthier ways to move around are currently underway.
[4] According to the International
Energy Agency (IEA), transportation is responsible
for almost one quarter of direct CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Road
vehicles – cars, trucks, buses and two- and three-wheelers – account for nearly
three-quarters of transport CO2 emissions.
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