This is not time to point fingers

There is one last stop, Barcelona. The road to Copenhagen has been long and demanding. Negotiators under the two tracks—the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA)—have put in long hours of hard work to get to this point. Although the remaining part of the journey is relatively short, it could turn out to be the most torturous if there is no significant shift in positions. One lesson I have learnt in life is that problems that appear intractable have some of the simplest of solutions.

To break the current “impasse”, I recommend developing (non-Annex I) countries commit to measurable, verifiable and reportable emission reduction targets in the post-Kyoto climate framework. In other words, the distinguishing criteria in the Copenhagen deal should be the level of emission reduction targets (ERTs) different countries are committed to and not whether a country has binding commitments or not. This might sound politically incorrect, but a closer scrutiny of what is at stake will reveal that it is the most feasible route to avoid the 2 degrees threshold (with some luck we can even limit it to 1.5 degrees). Countries cooperate because it is to their self best interest to do so. I have yet to meet anyone who says it is alright to go beyond the tipping point.

I am convinced that at the pace at which science is moving we are very likely to have clearer understanding of the role of primary aerosols and pollutant gases such as nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, ammonia, sulphates, and hundreds of organic gases and acids in atmospheric brown clouds (ABCs) in climate change sooner than later. This knowledge will be crucial to mathematically arrive at binding ERTs, primarily focusing on the “better half” greenhouse gases, which will help save the world as we know it. I believe Africa, which has hitherto pursued the greenest development path, must give effect to its historical experience by providing leadership in the climate talks.